The present invention relates to apparatus and method for calculation and more particularly to apparatus and method for a speed rating for an entrant in a speed contest from predetermined constants and factors taken from previous race results. The present invention further relates to calculators for executing fixed arithmetic functions under the control of read-only storage programs.
In the prior art, there are many methods for calculating a speed rating for race entrants such as racehorses.
An animals ability to race is a function of his innate ability as modifier of his physical condition at the time of the race. That is, an animal in peak condition can race over a given distance at a certain average speed -- that individual is now racing at this ultimate capacity and no further amount of training can improve his performance. The innate ability to race for the individuals of any species has a bell shaped curve, the same as all other physical and performance characteristics such as height or intelligence.
The individuals of a species tend towards a norm (the peak of the bell shaped curve) with exceptional individuals out at the tails on either end of the bell.
For many years horse racing enthusiasts have been seeking a method to evaluate a horses innate running capacity at various distances. This is difficult for several reasons:
1. Horses race at many different distances and there is great difficulty in relating performances at the different distances. For example if you knew the racing ability of horse A at 1 mile and the racing ability of horse B at 11/2 miles who would be the faster at 11/4 mile?
2. The past performances of all horses in a race are published in the Daily Racing Form, however only the time of the winner is given. The number of lengths that each other horse in a race was behind the winner at the finish is also given and the rule of thumb is to add one fifth of a second to the winning time for each length behind the winner. This rule of thumb is only accurate if the horses are running at the exact speed of one furlong (60 lengths) per 12 seconds and is inaccurate for all other speeds.
3. The same horse will run at different speeds on different tracks. This difference is caused by the track structure and the track condition. There are long term variations (track structure) and short term variations (weather), amount of scraping and etc.
A horses racing class is related to his position on the bell shaped performance curve. A horse of high class (out on the high side tail of the bell) will beat a horse of average class (at the peak of the bell) at any typical racing distance. Higher class horses tend to perform better than lower class horses at all racing distances.
The problem is how to rate a horse's racing ability such that:
1. Horses of the same class average the same rating at all distances.
2. Horses of different class have different ratings on an ascendant scale with performance.
3. Horses taken individually on the average have the same speed rating at all distances.
The present speed rating systems do not meet the criteria as stated above. In most systems such as the Daily Racing Form, one point is subtracted from 100 for each fifth of a second the horses performance was higher than the track record at that distance. This system does not meet the criteria stated above for the following reasons:
1. One fifth of a second at a distance is much less important than one fifth of a second at a sprint.
2. The track records at different distances could have been set by horses of different class. The track record is a function of the horse that set the record.
3. The rule of thumb that one-fifth second equals one length is not accurate.
In order to generate speed ratings that meet the three criteria set out above a basic concept with a simple equation is necessary.
Other systems are discussed in a book by Andrew entitled Picking Winners. One particular system employs matrix tables which plot time and distance with resultant lines, being various speed ratings. One then can presumably compare two different horses by determining each ones speed rating and then by comparing the speed ratings. This is inherently inexact since there is no overall theory to determine the speed ratings, it is all done empirically. To compound this, there is another table for non-winning horses. This also plots distance and time and is also empirical, however, when these empirical results are added to the previous results, the final comparison is even more obtuse because of the inherent inaccuracy of empirical systems.
Although there are many calculators for executing arithmetic functions, there was no calculator capable of executing an equation for calculating a speed rating based upon predetermined constants and factors taken from previous race results.